Thursday, July 29, 2010

Obama v. Gingrich (2012 Trial Heats, July '10)

[Click to Enlarge]

And Newt Gingrich?

The last of the Big Four routinely brought up the rear in terms of performance against Obama relative to the other three (Huckabee, Palin and Romney) during 2009. So far behind did the former speaker lag that Public Policy Polling dropped him from consideration. However, the Georgian did so well in some of the surveys of early primary/caucus states that they brought him back in 2010.

Not unlike the other three, Gingrich has seen President Obama's support dry up in these monthly glimpses into the state of the 2012 race. But it isn't all about Obama trailing off; Gingrich has crept up as well. His polling average is right on 40%, but his time-adjusted estimate brings the former speaker closer to Obama. Gingrich does not fare as well as Huckabee or Romney, but bests Palin against Obama. He settles in just in between both extremes. What is lacking on Gingrich is that there are fewer polls and that PPP surveys make up three-quarters of the data on him. Now, to be fair, PPP makes up the majority of all the candidates' data, but some more variation would likely be helpful. As with the other candidates*, most of the non-PPP polls show Obama with a larger lead. Rasmussen is the exception. But Rasmussen has not asked the Gingrich question yet. Perhaps that will change as we near 2011 and the time when presidential announcements begin to be made.

2012 Presidential Trial Heat Polling (Obama v. Gingrich)
Poll
Date
Margin of Error
Sample
ObamaGingrichUndecided
Public Policy Polling
July 9-12, 2010
+/- 3.8%
667 likely voters
45
46
9
Public Policy Polling
June 4-7, 2010
+/- 3.8%
650 likely voters
473914
Public Policy Polling
May 7-9, 2010+/- %
707 likely voters
49429
Public Policy Polling
April 9-11, 2010+/- 3.9%
622 likely voters
45
45
10
CNN
April 9-11, 2010
+/- 3.5%
907 reg. voters
5543--
Clarus Research
March 17-20, 2010
+/- 3%
1050 reg. voters
483616
Clarus Research
Aug. 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1003 voters
523415
Public Policy Polling
Aug. 14-17, 2009
+/- 3.3%
909 likely voters
494110
Public Policy Polling
July 15-16, 2009
+/- 4.1%
577 likely voters
5042
9
Public Policy Polling
June 12-16, 2009
+/- 3.9%
638 likely voters
494110
Public Policy Polling
May 14-18, 2009
+/- 3.1%
1000 likely voters
533611
Public Policy Polling
April 17-19, 2009
+/- 3.7%
686 likely voters
52399
Average


49.4540.00
--
Regression Average


46.8242.24--

*This seems to hurt Palin the most. She is the candidate most often polled against Obama by other polling firms.

Are you following FHQ on Twitter and/or Facebook? Click on the links to join in.

No comments: